Beta and firm age

We document a robust pattern of beta declining over the age of a firm. We find that changes in systematic risk via firm characteristics and life-cycle stages are insufficient to explain this pattern. Moreover, standard proxies for the quantity and quality of information also explain this pattern only partially. To fully explain this pattern we rely on the increasingly important role of familiarity in financial decision making: familiarity is a determinant of beta and firm age is a proxy for the degree of familiarity that investors feel toward individual stocks. To illustrate the implication of our findings, we document that when we control for firm age there is support for the CAPM and its use as an input for the cost of equity capital calculation.     

我国省级区域金融发展对经常项目的影响研究——基于货物贸易视角的分析

本文选取我国大陆31个省(市、自治区)2007年-2018年的面板数据,综合运用系统GMM和差分GMM估计方法,实证检验了沿海与内陆、沿边与非沿边、享受优惠政策高与低、金融控制强与弱等4类不同省区金融发展对经常项目余额的影响。研究结果表明:使用全部样本估计时,金融发展显著负向影响经常项目余额,这一结论经稳健性检验后依然成立。使用不同区域的子样本估计时,金融发展对沿海省区、非沿边省区、享受优惠政策高以及金融控制弱省区的经常项目余额的抑制作用较大,而在其他省区作用较小。因此,各地区应充分利用金融手段来调整进出口余额,以保证经常项目的持续平衡。     

Combining the minimum-variance and equally-weighted portfolios: Can portfolio performance be improved?

It is documented in the literature that due to estimation errors, mean-variance efficient portfolios deliver no higher out-of-sample Sharpe ratios than does the naïve equally-weighted portfolio (EWP). This paper demonstrates how the out-of-sample performance of the minimum-variance portfolio (MVP) can be improved in the presence of estimation errors by combining the MVP and EWP. Our results indicate that an appropriate combination of the MVP and EWP can enhance Sharpe ratios under any scenarios considered, and can also reduce the portfolio risk if short-selling is allowed. However, the combination strategy is not able to generate a lower risk level than the MVP when a short-selling restriction is imposed. We find that the optimal combination coefficient depends on the factors that greatly impact estimation errors in the MVP, including sample size, estimation method, no-short-selling restriction, and length of the out-of-sample period under consideration.     

The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model $X_t=\gamma Z_t+Y_t$, where $Z_t$ belongs to a large class of deterministic regressors and $Y_t$ is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression, and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are ${\chi }^2$-distributed.     

Accounting for diverse risk attitudes in measures of risk perceptions: A case study of climate change risk for small-scale citrus farmers in Indonesia

Climate change is likely to generate severe impacts on smallholder farmers in developing countries. As key drivers of adaptation, climate risk perceptions are highly heterogeneous, varying both across people and context, and are complex, being defined as behaviour which varies across both impact and likelihood dimensions in non-linear ways. Yet most studies examining risk perceptions are unable to disentangle the role of perceptions regarding impacts from those regarding the likelihood of climate-related events taking place. This paper presents a decomposition and associated analysis of survey-based ‘risk perception’ measures. The decomposition we apply allows independent accounting for perceptions over frequencies and impacts linking to behavioural patterns of risk attitude. The approach presented here draws on a detailed 2017 survey of 500 farmers in rural Indonesia to generate insights into the relationship between risk perceptions and extension services, accessibility of information, and other factors. Results show that risk perceptions are generated from complex interaction between perceived future frequencies and outcomes of climate events and indicate differential impacts of extension services across these perceptions. This paper also presents empirical support for the use of information and communication technology based extension as an efficient extension tool to reach more farmers than in traditional methods.     

The impact of purchasing strategy-structure (mis)fit on purchasing cost and innovation performance

The organizational design literature strongly supports the notion of “structure follows strategy”, and suggests that a misfit between the two has a negative effect on performance. Building on this line of argument, we examine to what extent the (mis)fit between purchasing strategy and purchasing structure impacts purchasing performance. We focus on cost and innovation purchase category strategies, and examine how the deviation from an ideal purchasing structure defined along three dimensions (centralization, formalization, and cross-functionality) impacts purchasing performance. Analysing data collected from 469 firms in ten countries, we demonstrate that a strategy-structure misfit negatively impacts purchasing performance in both cost and innovation strategies. We also find that purchasing proficiency is a mediator in this relationship between misfit and performance. Our findings aid managerial decision making by empirically validating the necessity of having the right purchasing structure for successfully executing different purchasing strategies.     

基于跳跃-扩散KMV模型的上市公司信用风险评估

本文在传统KMV模型基础上进行改进,引入风险资产价格的跳跃因素,构建跳跃-扩散KMV模型。分别从行业属性、公司属性和公司规模三个角度,对我国126家上市公司的跳跃风险进行估计,并对其信用风险进行度量。在此基础上,以测算的违约距离为被解释变量,以经济周期、跳跃风险及反映企业自身经营情况的财务指标为解释变量,利用固定效应模型实证检验企业信用风险的影响因素。结果表明,使用跳跃-扩散KMV模型度量上市公司信用风险的效果较好,测量结果与我国实际情况较吻合;同时企业的信用风险与其自身的偿债能力和跳跃风险呈显著正相关,而与其盈利能力、成长能力、营运能力及宏观经济状况呈显著负相关。     

Pursuing efficiency: a data envelopment analysis of MFIs in Latin America

This article analyses the overall profitability efficiency (PE) of Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) in Latin America. The PE of each MFI in the study is broken down into two components: pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. One data envelopment model is used to analyse each component. Each MFI was labelled as either a bank, cooperative and credit union, nonbanking financial institution or non-governmental organization, and then the analysis was performed on each separate group. The results suggest that, on average, banks are the most efficient MFIs; while NGOs are, on average, the least efficient MFIs. On average, all 4 groups are more pure technically efficient than scale efficient. Banks, nongovernmental organizations, nonbanking financial institutions, cooperatives and credit unions all seem to have problems with scale efficiency. Many MFIs seem to be operating on the increasing returns to scale frontier and are in a more favourable position for expansion.     

资本永续盘存法及其国内应用

资本存量数据是宏观经济运行政策研究的重要决定因素。资本存量核算比较复杂，在理论与技术两个层面都存在诸多问题难以厘清。我国资本统计十分薄弱，数据可得性成为资本存量估算的严重制约。在我国经济增长研究中，如何准确估算资本存量一直是困扰研究者的难题。学术界需要使用这方面数据，又促使很多学者基于各自的研究目的对我国资本存量进行估算。这些研究分别利用不同的假设和处理方法，这使我国资本存量数据出现了差异很大的众多版本。本文在对资本存量估算方法进行梳理之后，对我国资本估算现有研究进行了回顾和评论。